that each ranks in the top 10. There's talent on the Falcons, but they are such an unknown heading into 2021. Reggie White was downright unblockable. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. Here's everything we know, QB Young 5-10 1/8, 204 pounds at NFL combine, Sources: Patriots tell QB Hoyer he's being cut, Horns' Robinson: Versatility worthy of early pick, Jones: Not fixated on Cowboys' drought, just '23, Sources: Raiders plan franchise tag for Jacobs, WR Addison to Steelers' Pickett: 'Come get me', Wolverines' Turner wows with 4.26 40 at combine, Top QB prospect Levis eager to unleash 'cannon', Everything you need to know about Geno Smith's contract negotiations. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. Allowed 173 yards per game on the ground lmao this1dude88 Chiefs 4 yr. ago That defense became dominant 5. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. 16. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Obsessed with travel? Peyton Manning was on another level this season, leading his offense to score a jarring 37.9 points per game, but the team around him was lacking. The game that gave us all of those 28-3 jokes. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense and worst defense in the league. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. Houston would be much higher on this list if Deshaun Watson's future with the team wasn't uncertain. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. Why? Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. That's ridiculous. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. QB | RB | WR | TE If Atlanta can create holes up front for free agent signing Mike Davis, the Falcons offense may be good enough to carry a defense that needs some work. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. Give them five years to become a dynasty. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. Star quarterback Phil Simms was injured during the playoffs, no player had more than 30 catches during the regular season and the team was carried by a great defense that allowed only 13.2 points per game. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. He saved the team from the clutches of defeat and led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive. Reeling off 11 straight road wins was impressive, and so was beating the top two seeded teams in the NFC en route to the title game (Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys). The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. edit: grammar The NFL didn't have a full season due to a strike, so it is hard to put a 72 team ahead of others. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). Let's start in the 1980s, with a team led by Hall of Famers like Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Steve Young For a franchise that was so consistently dominant in the 1980s, the 1988 version of the San Francisco 49ers sure seems mediocre. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. 20. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. Thats NFL history. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. 32. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). Forget about Super Bowl history, this was one of the best games in the history of American sports. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. That's right, a team with Jerry Rice had a running back gain more receiving yards. It was easily the sloppiest Super Bowl of all-time. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. 1 pick, Ex-Patriots star McGinest facing eight years in prison, Commanders rip 'blatantly false' team sale report, Last Super Bowl appearance: 2016 (Super Bowl 50), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2017 (Super Bowl LI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1990 (Super Bowl XXIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1977 (Super Bowl XI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009 (Super Bowl XLIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2000 (Super Bowl XXXIV), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1994 (Super Bowl XXVIII). Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. More NFL coverage . A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Again, this is all dependent on how Darnold plays. After power was restored, the 49ers turned what looked to be another big game blowout into a nail-biter that Baltimore won thanks to a goal line stand and some questionable San Francisco play-calling. Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. Let's dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. Super Bowl LIV (Source: KC Kingdom) Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 31-20 score, their first since Super Bowl IV and after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. Peyton Manning needed the Saints and Tracy Porter to not come marching in. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. You won't believe how good some of these teams were. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. Odell Beckham makes a highly anticipated return to a passing game that includes Jarvis Landry and an emerging Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. So why are they lower value-wise? Ill assume you didnt watch the With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. A very good defense led by Andre Tippett and Steve Nelson. But the Super Bowl? This game will be decided at quarterback, and the daring superstar who joins Brady as the only quarterback to appear in three Super Bowls in his first six seasons is the pick here. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! And while the effect isn't dramatic, they would each be a little better off if the other weren't around. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. They had one of the league's best defenses that year. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Dick Vermeil's boys just missed out on the Lombardi Trophy with one bad day. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. People think of Kerry Collins when they think of this 124 Giants squad, but this defense was the real story. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays.