Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. This county voted with the popular vote each time. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. 12. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Read about our approach to external linking. But it's also not unprecedented. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. They simply vote on merit. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Trump won 18 of the 19. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? The divisions were everywhere. 5. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Jeff. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. In communities . If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. All Rights Reserved. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Sumter County, . Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 2. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The highest percentage being 66.1%. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257.